Venezuela Oil Output Could Hit 1.8 Million Bpd By 2030, Rystad Says

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Published: 2026-09-25 • Permanent link

Economists are breathing a sigh of relief as Rystad Energy predicts that Venezuela's oil production could reach 1.8 million barrels per day (bpd) by 2030, marking a significant turnaround for the country's struggling oil sector. This prediction is based on the influx of international operators and capital into the country's upstream oil sector, with established majors such as Chevron and ExxonMobil expanding their presence and new players like Marathon Oil entering the market. The news has sent shockwaves throughout the energy industry, with many analysts hailing it as a major milestone in Venezuela's efforts to revive its economy.

As a result of this predicted increase in oil production, investors are expected to take notice, with many betting on a significant boost to Venezuela's oil exports. This could have a ripple effect on the global energy market, potentially leading to increased competition for oil supplies and downward pressure on prices. Consumers, meanwhile, may see the benefits of lower energy costs, although it's worth noting that the country's oil sector still faces significant challenges, including a lack of infrastructure and technical expertise.

Venezuela's oil sector has been a long-standing source of frustration for many in the industry, with the country's oil production having declined by over 70% since 1999. However, in recent years, the government has made significant efforts to attract foreign investment and expertise, with the establishment of new oil fields and the signing of major production-sharing agreements. According to Rystad Energy, the country's oil sector is now attracting its broadest pool of international operators and capital in decades, paving the way for a significant increase in production.

The road ahead for Venezuela's oil sector is far from certain, however. While Rystad Energy's prediction is a major boost to the country's prospects, there are still many challenges to overcome, including the need to upgrade the country's aging infrastructure and to develop new skills and expertise. As the country looks to capitalize on its newfound oil wealth, investors and analysts will be watching closely for any signs of progress or setbacks, with the potential for significant changes in the global energy market hanging in the balance.