US consumer confidence hits its lowest level since 2014 ahead of midterms

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Financial Intelligence • Markets • World News • Independent Analysis
Published: 2026-09-29 • Permanent link

Rumors of a decline in consumer confidence have been circulating for months, but the latest numbers are a stark reminder of the economic uncertainty that lies ahead. According to a report released by the Conference Board, US consumer confidence has hit its lowest level since 2014, with a score of 86.1 in September. This represents a decline of 10.8 points from the previous month, and a 15.5-point drop from the same time last year. The drop was led by a decline in consumer expectations, with a 13.2-point drop in the expectations component of the index.

Fears of a mid-term election hangover are likely to be a major factor in the decline in consumer confidence. Investors are growing increasingly concerned about the potential impact of a divided government on the economy, and consumers are taking notice. As a result, spending is likely to slow, which could have a ripple effect throughout the economy. The National Retail Federation estimates that consumer spending accounts for approximately 70% of the US economy, making a decline in consumer confidence a major concern for businesses and policymakers alike.

Historically, consumer confidence has been a reliable indicator of the overall health of the economy. Since the 1960s, a decline in consumer confidence has been a precursor to a recession, with the exception of the 2008 financial crisis. According to a study by the National Bureau of Economic Research, a decline in consumer confidence is a reliable indicator of a recession, with a 97% accuracy rate. This suggests that the latest decline in consumer confidence may be a cause for concern, and policymakers may need to take action to mitigate the impact on the economy.

As the mid-term elections approach, investors will be watching the consumer confidence numbers closely for any signs of a shift in consumer spending habits. If the decline in consumer confidence continues, it could have a major impact on the stock market, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average potentially experiencing significant losses. On the other hand, if the decline in consumer confidence is temporary, it could be a buying opportunity for investors looking to get in on the ground floor of a potential economic recovery.