A death cross is coming for the dollar. Why Trump will be happy

Billy Odell Tucker-Robinson Founder & Host — Banking With Billy Network • Financial Intelligence • Markets • World News • Independent Analysis
Published: 2026-09-25 • Permanent link

Diverging from the expected trajectory, a potential death cross is looming over the dollar, a technical indicator that could spell trouble for the US currency. According to technical analysts, a death cross occurs when the 50-day moving average falls below the 200-day moving average, a sign that a sharp decline is imminent. This prediction is based on the recent decline in the US Treasury yield, which has seen a significant drop in recent weeks.

The implications of a death cross are far-reaching, with investors and policymakers taking note of the potential risks. A decline in the dollar's value could lead to higher import costs for consumers, which could be passed on to businesses and ultimately impact the broader economy. Furthermore, a weaker dollar could also lead to increased interest rates, as investors seek higher returns to compensate for the decreased purchasing power of the currency.

Historically, the death cross has been a reliable indicator of a market downturn, with many notable crashes occurring shortly after the indicator's appearance. For instance, in 2007, the death cross preceded the global financial crisis, while in 2018, it preceded the sharp decline in the Dow Jones Industrial Average. While the current market environment is different from these past instances, the technical indicators suggest that a similar scenario may be unfolding.

As the market waits with bated breath for the death cross to materialize, experts are warning of a potential catalyst that could tip the scales. The upcoming Federal Reserve meeting, scheduled for later this month, could see policymakers respond to the declining dollar by raising interest rates. This move could accelerate the decline in the dollar's value, creating a self-reinforcing cycle that could have far-reaching consequences for the global economy.